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Hossa's Cup quest leads him to ChicagoHockey Betting Lines07/02/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's every NHL player's dream to win a Stanley Cup title, and Marian Hossa is certainly no exception. Over the past few years, Hossa's travels have taken him from Atlanta to Pittsburgh to Detroit, and despite appearing in back-to-back Cup Finals, the Slovakian sniper has still yet to raise hockey's ultimate prize. On the first day of NHL free agency, Hossa decided that his best chance at winning it all resided in Chicago and, unlike last summer, he was willing to make a long-term commitment in order to make that dream a reality. Hossa's story has become legendary in hockey circles because it's a tale filled with irony, betrayal and even a whiff of tragedy in the Greek or Shakespearean sense. And it all boils down to a decision Hossa made 12 months ago, a choice that he may continue to agonize over. It all started when Hossa was dealt from Atlanta to Pittsburgh prior to the 2007-08 trade deadline. He played a huge part in the Penguins' run to the Cup Finals that year, but Pittsburgh wound up losing in six games to Detroit. That, of course, is what led to Hossa's infamous decision, as just weeks after the Pens fell to the Red Wings, he opted to turn down a lucrative multi-year offer to stay in Pittsburgh and sign a one-year deal with Detroit instead. Of course, we all know how that ended. The Penguins and Red Wings met again this year in the Cup Finals, and Pittsburgh claimed the Cup with a thrilling seven-game series win. So now, Hossa has decided to take his immense talent and perceived bad mojo to the youthful Blackhawks, who were dispatched by Detroit in the Western Conference finals this past spring. The big question is whether Hossa will get to the promised land with Chicago, or whether his heartache will continue. The mistake Hossa made last year was trying to back-door his way into a championship by signing the short-term deal with Detroit. The Red Wings were also counting on the same type of playoff production Hossa had provided for the Pens in 2008, but instead he had a very disappointing postseason, including a final round with just three assists. This time around, Hossa has made a huge commitment to the Blackhawks and vice versa. Chicago signed the 30-year-old winger to a mammoth 12-year, $62.8 million deal. While no one disagrees that a scorer of Hossa's caliber will certainly make the Blackhawks a better team, there has been concern that a contract of that size could hurt Chicago down the line in terms of getting under the salary cap. After all, the Hawks are a very young team and players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Kris Versteeg will be due big paydays in the coming years. However, if Chicago is able to find a way to keep Hossa and that young core together, then the balance of power in the West may shift from Motown to the Windy City. HABS, LEAFS GET BUSY Canada's two most prominent NHL franchises were in the spotlight on Wednesday, as the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs made a series of moves on the first day of free agency. The Canadiens had already made a splash by acquiring veteran center Scott Gomez on Tuesday in a seven-player trade with the New York Rangers. Montreal didn't stop there, as they also signed four players the following day, inking forwards Mike Cammalleri and Brian Gionta as well as defensemen Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek. Toronto, meanwhile, traded Pavel Kubina and Tim Stapleton to Atlanta for Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart. The Leafs also added toughness by signing enforcer Colton Orr. But the Maple Leafs' biggest move came when they signed defenseman Mike Komisarek away from Montreal. With youngster Luke Schenn blossoming on the blue line, Komisarek gives Toronto another big body to help in the defensive end. Not to mention, the five-year, $22.5 million price tag for Komisarek is palatable, and leaves general manager Brian Burke room to maneuver during this rebuilding process. The Habs, on the other hand, seemed to commit a great deal of money to a handful of players without improving their team by all that much. Gomez is scheduled to make $8 million next year, while Gionta and Cammalleri were given an average of $5 million and $6 million, respectively, over the next five seasons. Cammalleri did have a huge year with the Flames in 2008-09, registering career-highs in goals (39) and points (82), but that was while playing on a line with Jarome Iginla and Daymond Langkow. The rabid fans in Montreal will expect him to duplicate those numbers next year with the Habs, and it could get ugly if he fails to live up to last year's output. To be fair to the Canadiens, they have made the playoffs in each of the past two seasons and are not in full-blown rebuilding mode like the Maple Leafs, who have missed the postseason for four straight years. That, of course, makes it more difficult for Montreal to improve its club, and also makes it hard for the Leafs not to improve theirs. There will be a slew of new faces when these clubs renew their fierce rivalry next season, but my guess is it won't take long for Habs and Leafs fans to memorize which players they are supposed to hate.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance. Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it? If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.) Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa). In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech. Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down. (Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28) If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you. Atlantic Coast Conference Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
Work left to do: Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's. Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win). Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT. For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com Additional basketball lines can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs. |
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