06/21/2010 - Monterey, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Most golf nuts are always searching for that ultimate buddy trip. To play 12 rounds of golf in 5 days, visit the local establishments and enjoy the fruitful libation to the wee hours of the morning.

Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, Bandon Dunes, even Whistling Straits come to mind for the golf junkie seeking such an excursion, but have you ever thought of the Monterey peninsula in California?

The golf enthusiast virtually has no shot at playing Pine Valley or Augusta National, but you can play Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Certainly the granddaddy of golf on the west coast, Pebble Beach has been ranked in the top-10 in the United States for as long as I can remember...and with good reason.

It has hosted five U.S. Opens, four U.S. Amateurs, a PGA Championship and a yearly PGA Tour event since 1947. The views are sensational along the Pacific Coast and when you can walk the fairways where the greats of the game strolled, why not? Yes, it will cost an arm and a leg - a round will cost you $495 - but you only live once.

However, Pebble Beach is just a small part of what the Monterey Peninsula has to offer.

The ultra-exclusive Cypress Point Club is for the most part out of the question, as you'll need to be hosted by a member. But how about Spyglass Hill Golf Course?

Opened for play in 1966, Spyglass Hill was designed by legendary architect Robert Trent Jones Sr. The holes are named after characters from the Robert Louis Stevenson novel, "Treasure Island." Your approach shot on the opening hole plays toward the ocean and doesn't leave the seaside until you head inland on the uphill sixth. A true masterpiece, and Jones' highest rated course in the U.S.

Poppy Hills Golf Course is another outstanding venue near the California coast. Carved inland through the forests of Monterey, Poppy Hills is rated 4 1/2 stars by Golf Digest's Places to Play. It features undulating greens that are guarded tightly by plenty of sand. The back-to-back, risk-reward par fives on holes nine and 10 are quite enticing. For years, the course was part of the AT&T Pro-Am rotation, and its current course conditioning is as good as it gets.

Often overlooked is The Links at Spanish Bay. The trio of Robert Trent Jones Jr., Tom Watson and former USGA president Sandy Tatum put their talents together to create a Scottish-style layout along the coast. Rated as one of the top-25 courses in the state, Spanish Bay is very reminiscent of the wonderful layouts across the pond.

Monterey Peninsula Country Club boasts a pair of wonderful courses, the Shore Course, which was added to the Pro-Am rota in 2010, and the Dunes layout. Both courses boast a celebrated history, as the Dunes was designed by C.B. Macdonald and Seth Raynor in 1925 and the Shore venue was crafted by Pebble Beach co-designer Jack Neville and Robert Baldock, and then redesigned by the late Mike Strantz. It's no wonder that the Shore Course is rated in the top-10 in California.

Designed in 1932, Pacific Grove Golf Club is another gem along the Pacific Coast. Neville and H. Chandler Egan had their hands in this layout that traverses through the trees for nine holes and then along the sand dunes by the coast. Just drop a zero off the cost at Pebble Beach, and Pacific Grove might be the best ticket in town.

Just a few minutes north of the peninsula are two courses that some consider the best 36 holes in the Monterey region, the Bayonet and Black Horse layouts at Fort Ord. Named after the Army's 7th Infantry, the Bayonet stretches over 7,100 yards and features tree-lined fairways. The Black Horse course honors the 11th Cavalry Regiment that was stationed here for over 20 years. The championship tees now possess a slope of 141 and a rating of 73.7, with views of Monterey Bay.

Golf is just a smidgen of what the Monterey region has to offer. First and foremost is the quaint town of Carmel, with its beautiful bed and breakfasts that line the streets and the plentiful shops and restaurants. An artist's haven, Carmel-by-the-Sea boasts some of the most charming galleries on the west coast.

A must attraction is the Monterey Bay Aquarium, located in Pacific Grove. From Pink Flamingos to Seahorses, Penguins and Otters, not to mention the giant Pacific Octopus, the Aquarium is a great way to learn about our ocean friends.

A favorite activity of all visitors is the majestic ride through 17-Mile Drive. This scenic road traverses through some of the most beautiful golf courses in the country, Cypress Point and Pebble Beach among them, as you hug the coastline. The lone Cypress, a symbol of California and the Pebble Beach Company, stands tall as one of the most inspiring spots on the coast.

So boys (and girls), if you're tired of the same old, same old, then it's time for a trip to the west coast and some of the best golf on the planet. Sure, Pebble Beach receives all of the accolades, but the Monterey Peninsula is a golfer's dream.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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