Watlantahawks Baseball Betting News

<< Habs appoint Carriere assistant GM
Montreal, Quebec (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens announced on Friday the appointment of Larry Carriere to assistant general manager and director of player personnel. Carriere, a Montreal native, had been a pro scout fo

<< Padres disable Latos, Adams
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres have placed pitchers Mat Latos and Mike Adams on the 15-day disabled list. Latos will be out of action due to a strained left oblique muscle suffered when he was trying to hold

<< Indians release C Redmond
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians have released catcher Mike Redmond after designating him for assignment last Saturday. Redmond was hitting .206 with five runs batted in over 63 at-bats at the time of his designation

<< Brewers' Davis shelved by elbow tendinitis
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers have placed lefty Doug Davis on the 15-day disabled list with tendinitis in his left elbow. Davis was scheduled to pitch Monday to open a four-game series in Pittsburgh. He missed the

Mets bump Pelfrey to Monday >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey will have his scheduled Saturday start pushed back to Monday due to a stiff neck. The Mets will insert lefty Hisanori Takahashi to take the place of Pelf

Gainey goes in front at Chiquita Classic >>
Maineville, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tommy Gainey posted a six-under 66 on Friday to move atop the leaderboard after the second round of the inaugural Chiquita Classic. Gainey finished 36 holes at 14-under 130 at TPC River's Bend and is one st

Manny Ramirez replaced in first inning >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Manny Ramirez left Friday's game against the St. Louis Cardinals due to right calf tightness. He's considered day-to-day. Ramirez was replaced in left field by Xavier Paul in the b

NFL suspends Seahawks LB Hill one game >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL has suspended Seattle Seahawks linebacker Leroy Hill one game for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Hill was also fined an additional game check. The Seattle Times reported

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.